Snarky Behavior

As much as I was pulling for Obama last night, I think it’s a good thing that he sustained a loss relatively early in his campaign.

1.  Political campaigns are about the counter-punch.  How you respond when you’re down.  Clinton was criticized for being a dispassionate robot who didn’t have her thumb on the pulse of the nation.  So she showed some emotion and passion and became a more sympathetic character.  And that paid off.  Now it’s Obama’s turn to prove that he can make things happen when he doesn’t necessarily have the wind at his back.  And that’s an important trait to demonstrate when you’re running for president.  Better to answer that question relatively early, in a primary you weren’t initially expected to win, than in the general election.

2.  The “Clinton matches up better with McCain” argument the pundits are spewing is really a bunch of crap.  First of all, McCain is a more flexible independent and has wider appeal than Clinton.  He has more experience across the board in terms of domestic and foreign policy.  He is a slick pollster who somehow maintains an image of integrity, as an “outside the party” maverick.  He therefore beats Clinton on “change” and “experience.”  So stop saying he’s “the perfect matchup” with Obama, because that’s crap.  It really is.  If the first two primaries have proven anything, it’s that political pundits are full of shit, only talk to each other, and are chattering nincompoops.

3.  My speculative guess is that New Hampshire proved that students/young voters still don’t understand how politics work.  The polls showed a comfortable lead two days before the election, and I don’t think everyone showed up to vote (even in New Hampshire) because they were counting unhatched chickens.  Obama’s two biggest challenges are now: GOTV to youth, and convincing the Black vote that he’s viable.  I think if he locks up South Carolina that will seal the deal.

4.  The good thing is that Obama doesn’t have to retool his message.  He just has to remind people that Clinton is establishment and divisive.  There are ways of asserting that without being too negative, because most people already believe the Clinton’s are divisive figures. 

5.  Women voted for Clinton in New Hampshire, for Obama in Iowa.  Men voted for Obama in both states.  I have the feeling that more states are like Iowa than New Hampshire.

Obama has an opportunity now to prove that he can handle adversity.  He wasn’t going to be the golden boy forever, and people need to see how he reacts when he’s lost some of the luster of his insistence on change implementation via rhetoric.  Now’s the time when he buckles down and says: “New Hampshire has made this a real contest, and I’m completely ready for it.” 

The media will criticize him if he doesn’t retool his message.  I think the more important thing is that he stays active, that he gives more people a chance to see him, that he continues to transcend cynicism.  Clinton will get a pass for tearing once.  But she can’t play that card again without it seeming an affectation.